Spreading Of The Infectious Disease: COVID-19 Modelling

Sanjaykumar, Avhad Siddharth (2021) Spreading Of The Infectious Disease: COVID-19 Modelling. Masters thesis, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata.

Text (MS Dissertation of Avhad Siddarth Sanjaykumar (16MS047)) 16MS047_Thesis_file.pdf - Submitted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (4MB)

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic has posed severe challenges to human lives, economies and medical systems in almost every region of the world. Initially, in the absence of a vaccine or any treatment, NPIs (Non-Pharmacological Interventions) remained the only option to contain the virus. The rapid development of vaccination and subsequent delivery has shown a ray of hope. To understand the trajectory of the course of the pandemic, various models have been proposed. Here, we present an overview of some of the Compartmental models proposed so far. We then propose our model that takes into account vaccination. Small changes in the values of some of the COVID-19 model parameters used would dramatically change the dynamics, which has been shown as well. Moreover, our study shows that vaccination plays a crucial role in controlling the progression of the disease in the population. We also discuss various limitations our model faces. Our model could be extended to incorporate many other factors like the birth-death rate, multiple strains and the age structure to understand the underlying mechanisms of COVID-19 spreading.

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